By Daniel

WallStreet.io contributor and analyst. Author of upcoming book on market volatility.

Apr 1, 2016

Did Netflix Just Show Us a Sideways Trend Breakout?

Let’s take a look at the four-month chart of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) which shows how the streaming behemoth is trying to break out of a month-long sideways pattern.

source: Zenalytics123

This follows close on the heels of the recent bullish move above its year-long downtrend, as may be seen in the chart’s diagonal gold line.

On Thursday, NFLX closed at $102.23. This places the stock closer to its 200-day Moving Average than it’s been in 2 months, and if it can get past that line, it could signify some bullish traction. However, $102.50 is the point of its recent sideways resistance, so it still needs to push past that level. Above that, $110 serves as the next big resistance line.

Right now though, the $100 level retains a strong magnetic pull, and this week’s price action has been the first time the stock’s pulled higher than 1% above that psychologically important number in over 5 months.

In terms of the support, the number remains the same as the last few weeks, which is $94.50, just a little above its 50-day MA. Let’s call $110 the bullish over, and $94.50 the bearish under, a spread that could hold until the next earnings report.

NFLX PayDayCycle Status is currently neutral, with a red doji indicating the possibility of a reversal. The stock is now in its 2nd day of red bars, making it the second day of a bearish cycle. A reversal would mean the start of a new, bullish cycle.

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Using the new Winning Streak tool, we see that the average bearish Winning Streak, when NFLX is below its 200-day Moving Average but above its 50-day MA, is 2.68 days. (This is according to data going back for the last 10 years.) Based on this, there is an even-money chance as to which way the stock will turn next in the short term.

The MACD shows that NFLX is in its 2nd consecutive day in the red, leaving the stock on the bullish side of the momentum indicator, though just barely (see gold oval on the lower portion of the chart.) This indicates little momentum in either direction.

Bottom line: NFLX looks like the stock still has no clear short-term trend, with the round number $100 looming as the stock’s key level.The sideways trend may continue for a while longer, perhaps broken when earnings are announced April 18.

Trade Safe!