The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NAR:GLD) is now up over 25% on the year, as the exchange-traded fund is riding high on the coattails of its underlying commodity, gold.

GLD closed out the week’s session at $127.40, down by 0.21%. The gold-backed ETF pretty much tracked the broad market indices, as the Dow ended off by 0.20% and the S&P 500 index lost 0.08%.

But that’s about where the comparison ends, as GLD is substantially outperforming the key equity indices, which are up about 7% on the year.

Looking at today’s chart, which features weekly bars for a big-picture perspective, GLD clearly has had a sweet year to date, with the ratio of upside PayDayCycle bars compared to down stands at roughly 4:1.

GLD’s current trading range starts at support at $115, which was touched on back in both April and May. Resistance is up at $131, established at the start of July.

GLD’s closing price as of Friday, $127.40, leaves the ETF on the high side of the range, and resting just a little above its weekly 200-day MA of $124.82.

Since its rejection at current resistance 5 weeks back, GLD seems to have veered into sideways territory, with a lot of choppy trading going on since that time. So it looks like the ETF is now in consolidation mode, with no clear path either above or below in front of it.

Based on the weekly chart, the bears may be getting their collective shot in short order, should the consolidation phase end up indicating that buyers have overextended themselves, and sellers decide it’s time to cash in on Year-to-Date gains. In that case, a descent towards the middle of the current trading range would be likely.

PayDayCycles are 4-8 day trends in stocks that help people swing trade. To learn more about PayDayCycles make sure to grab the free Swing Trading Class on the right sidebar.

One indication of that may already have presented itself, and may be seen in the chart’s MACD graph. Clearly, the bears are taking charge of GLD’s momentum direction, as the string of a month’s worth of trading sessions shows. Though the MACD remains crossed over to the bulls, the current trajectory could see that reverse in relatively short order.

Bottom Line: The weekly charts are a great way to gauge possible patterns for near-term swing trades, as the current chart offers a bearish trade possibility on the horizon. But before any triggers are pulled, confirmation via daily charts is advised.

One big caveat- with the equity market in overextended mode, a reversal would swing capital back towards bonds and gold, in which case the ETF could easily break to the upside of the current range.