Apr 22, 2016

How High Can SPY Fly?

The market has been flying pretty close to the sun, as may be seen in this 5-month chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NAR:SPY.)

source: Zenalytics

SPY, which generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the component common stocks of the S&P 500 Index, has had a great little run since last week, successfully testing tough resistance that protected SPY’s all-time highs.

A couple of items worth noting about SPY right now. First off, it continues along an upward trajectory first established back mid-February (see diagonal line in chart) though it certainly looks like that uptrend could be breached with just a couple of down days in the broad market.

Second, and potentially more indicative of the ETF’s direction, Friday just saw a crossover of the 50-day MA above its 200-day MA, frequently a signal of an upward move. We’ll have to see if that proves to be the case here.

With less than an hour to go before the close, SPY sits at 209, staying above its recent resistance of $208.50. The ETF broke through that level on Tuesday, and though close to its current price action, we’ll have to call that current resistance. Worth noting is that it’s the same resistance level that it ran into back in December before crashing down more than 10%.

SPY is in the black for the year, and so far earnings season has kept it that way, in spite of some bad beats in the tech sector, at least so far. The next couple of weeks are big ones for the market, with AAPL, FB and TSLA all on deck for earnings reports.

In terms of support, it remains the same as last week: $201.50, so for the coming week, let’s call $211 the bullish over, with $201.50 remaining as the bearish under.

SPY PayDayCycle Status right now is -1, as it looks to end the day below yesterday’s. It’s the first red bar after a bullish PayDayCycle that lasted for 8 days, starting with a green doji. The large green bar that followed turned that doji bullish, and the subsequent breakout of a sustained sideways trend is a pattern worth noting.

PayDayCycles are 4-8 day trends in stocks that help people swing trade. To learn more about PayDayCycles make sure to grab the free Swing Trading Class on the right sidebar.

The MACD is in its 2nd day of red bars and is hugging the zero line. (See gold oval at chart’s bottom.) In spite of the bullish run of SPY lately, the momentum indicator shows weakness, as evidenced by the small size and recent back-and-forth of bullish/bearish bars.

Bottom line: SPY serves as a de facto proxy for the broader market, and based on Friday’s performance, the bulls could be seeing a move towards a sideways trend until the next couple of weeks digs deeper into the economic status of the major corporations via the next round of earnings reports. If anything, another red PayDayCycle bar could indicate a crossover to the bears, though the 50-day MA crossover above the 200-day MA warrants trader attention as well.