Well, that’s a whole lot of work for nothing, as this 6-month chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NAR:SPY) shows that the ETF, which generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the component common stocks of the S&P 500 Index, is now pretty much flat for the year.

So the bulls and bears have managed to fight each other to a total stalemate. But the multi-billion dollar question is, what happens now?

Technically speaking, the bears seem to be getting the upper hand right now. First off, the bullish trendline that’s been in place since mid-February was violated for the first time today, as SPY, sitting at $203.85 as of an hour before the closing bell, broke below that line. (See gold diagonal line in the chart.)

Second, the ETF’s 50-day MA was also pierced consistantly throughout the week, not exactly a bullish thing.

Finally, SPY looks determined to test out the bottom of its current, 2-month sideways pattern, defined by support at $201.75 and resistance of $211. Today’s probing of $202.75 was the lowest point the ETF touched on in close to 2 months.

What about some love for the bulls? Well, the 2% sell-off we’ve seen over the last 2 weeks has occurred with relatively low volume, so market sentiment is not yet in the “fear” half of the fear and greed equation that powers the market.

Other than that, with the Fed posturing for a possible June rate increase, and a generally lackluster earnings season that is quietly gearing down, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of positives for the equity market right now. Investors don’t seem to be buying the dips with much gusto at the moment.

The Over/Under for SPY is 211/201.75. A breakout from this range, either top or bottom, could set the tone for the “Sell in May” crowd, and the chance of a sell-off into the start of summer.

Taking a look from the Seasonality POV, SPY has seen a collective loss of nearly 2.5% for May and June over the last 7 years. I have chosen this time frame, rather than the default 10 years used by the new tool, as the market’s current disposition seems to have developed following the 2007-2008 crash, rather than during it.

SPY PayDayCycle Status right now is -3, as it looks to end the day below yesterday’s close. That makes it the 6th red bar in a row, so it’s now deep into a bearish PayDayCycle.

PayDayCycles are 4-8 day trends in stocks that help people swing trade. To learn more about PayDayCycles make sure to grab the free Swing Trading Class on the right sidebar.

The MACD is in its 3rd day of red bars, so the momentum indicator shows the bears are running the trend. Additionally, SPY has been under the zero line almost exclusively since the middle of March.

Bottom line: SPY, which pretty much represents the broad equity market, has not established much bullish traction recently, nor does it look like it will anytime soon. It’s possible the current sideways trend will continue until June when the Fed will either pull the trigger on a rate increase or let sleeping dogs lay. Until then, a bounce off support of $201.75 would be worth tracking for a bullish swing trade.