Just over a week ago, this was our take on the “bottom line” for United States Oil Fund (NAR:USO): “USO looks to be heading towards the 200-day MA, and could see a bounce there should fear in the market cool down somewhat. If not, a break below current support, and down to the 50-day MA at $11.20 should not surprise.”

That’s pretty much what happened, and now, with USO looking to end Wednesday around $11.75, the question is, are there any good current set-ups for swing trades in the works?

Could be, as there is one particular indicator looking like it could come into play very soon.

That would be a possible bullish crossover of the ETF’s 50-day MA above its 200-day MA.

A quick look at the chart shows the 2 widely-tracked MAs potentially converging around $11.45, which has served as support over the last month. A trifecta of USO bouncing off of that level, just as the 50-day MA crosses the 200-day MA, could mark a good entry point for a bullish swing trade.

Current resistance sits at $12.50, which is at the top of the current trading range.

Of technical interest is this: The last time USO had a 50-200 crossover was back at the end of 2014. That time the crossover was to the bears, and the ETF crashed and burned all the way down by over 50%.

There’s certainly no reason to expect such a dramatic rise in the oil-based fund, particularly as near-term resistance will likely be found at $12.15, a price point that is highly correlated with oil’s per-barrel price of $50, apparently a hard number for the commodity to rise above for any sustained period as of late.

USO PayDayCycle Status right now is neutral, a reflection of the choppy trading that’s occurred over the last 4 sessions. The ETF is currently in the 4th day of a bullish PayDayCycle.

PayDayCycles are 4-8 day trends in stocks that help people swing trade. To learn more about PayDayCycles make sure to grab the free Swing Trading Class on the right sidebar.

The MACD remains crossed to the bears, though the last 4 days have all seen green bars, indicating momentum is now favoring the bulls.

Bottom line: Keep an eye out to see if a bullish crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA occurs. If so, it would probably happen around $11.40, and USO could see a rise to $12.15 before encountering some resistance. A longer-term trade would hold on until the upper reaches of the current trading range are hit.