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Probability Stacking
What this helps you do
The PayDay Cycle framework gives you a clean way to spot swing opportunities. Probability stacking helps you decide which of those opportunities are worth your capital. In this guide, you will learn how to run through a simple seven-point checklist so you are not trading on a single candle or headline, but on a cluster of signals that all point in the same direction.
What is probability stacking?
In plain English, probability stacking means lining up multiple edges on the same trade before you act.
Instead of saying “I see a nice candle, I am in,” you ask a better question:
“How many things are working for this setup right now, and how many are working against it?”
Micah’s framework uses probability stacking to:
The more checks that agree with your idea, the higher the odds that a PayDay Cycle setup turns into a move you actually want to sit through.
The seven data points
Micah’s playbook boils probability stacking down to seven questions you ask before you push the button.
Use them as a quick mental checklist rather than a long homework assignment.
Market context
You start by asking: “What is the overall market doing?”
Big trends in the indexes often spill over into individual stocks. You want to know if the broad market is:
This gives you a sense of whether you have a tailwind or a headwind behind your idea.
Events, earnings, and news
Next, you look for scheduled events or surprise headlines that could slam your trade around:
If something big is on the calendar, you decide whether there is enough time to get in and out before the event, or whether that extra volatility is worth it at all.
PayDay Cycle count
Here you zoom into the current PayDay Cycle on the chart:
If you are five days into a cycle that usually runs six, that is a very different trade idea than entering on day one or two. This is where the backtest stats on WallStreet.io become your best friend.
Today’s candle type
Then you ask: “What is today’s Heikin-Ashi candle telling me?”
You are not just looking for “green” or “red.” You care if today’s candle is:
Together with the cycle count, this tells you if the stock looks like it is starting a new move, extending an existing one, or running out of steam.
MACD trend
MACD is a key part of Micah’s PayDay Cycle framework. In probability stacking mode, you are checking:
Rising, widening MACD often supports a strong trend. Flat or rolling-over MACD warns you that momentum might be fading, even if the candles still look fine.
Technical context and sequence
Here you step back and look at the bigger technical picture:
You also pay attention to how price behaves around key moving averages like the 20, 50, and 200 day. Breaks and retests of those levels can either support your idea or tell you that risk is higher than it looks.
Seasonality
Finally, you check seasonality as a confirmation tool, not a primary signal:
If a stock is wrapping up a bearish PayDay Cycle right as it enters a historically bullish window, that stacks one more chip on the “this could be a solid entry” side of the table.
Turning the checklist into better decisions
You do not need all seven data points to scream “yes” before you ever take a trade. That would leave you sitting on your hands forever.
Instead, the idea is:
For example, a potential long where…
…is very different from a trade where half of those are flashing yellow or red.
Probability stacking does not remove risk. It simply helps you say “no” more often so that your “yes” trades have better odds, on average, over a long series of swings.
How this connects to WallStreet.io
On the platform, each of these seven data points ties back to a specific view or tool, from charts and strategies to Seasonality and market context panels. The next article, “PayDay Cycle Tools in WSIO,” walks you through where to find each of these checks inside WallStreet.io so you can run this checklist quickly during your daily routine.